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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">managementranepa</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Управленческое консультирование</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Administrative Consulting</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1726-1139</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1816-8590</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. North-West Institute of Management.</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22394/1726-1139-2021-12-95-110</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">managementranepa-1778</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ВЛАСТЬ И ЭКОНОМИКА</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>POWER AND ECONOMICS</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Эффективные практики макропруденциального стресс-тестирования как инструмент повышения устойчивости финансовой системы России в условиях макроэкономических шоков</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Effective Practices of Macroprudential Stress Testing as a Tool of Increasing the Stability of Russian Financial System in the Context of Macroeconomic Shocks</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2612-440X</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Десятниченко</surname><given-names>Д. Ю.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Desyatnichenko</surname><given-names>D. Yu.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Десятниченко Дмитрий Юрьевич - доцент кафедры экономики Северо-Западного института управления РАНХиГС, кандидат экономических наук, доцент.</p><p>Санкт-Петербург</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Dmitry Yu. Desyatnichenko - Associate Professor of the Chair of Economics of North-West Institute of Management, Branch of RANEPA, PhD in Economics, Associate Professor.</p><p>St. Petersburg</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">desyatnichenko-dy@ranepa.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Рябов</surname><given-names>О. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Ryabov</surname><given-names>O. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Рябов Олег Васильевич - доцент кафедры экономики Северо-Западного института управления РАНХиГС, кандидат экономических наук, доцент.</p><p>Санкт-Петербург</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Oleg V. Ryabov - Associate Professor of the Chair of Economics of North-West Institute of Management, Branch of RANEPA, PhD in Economics, Associate Professor.</p><p>St. Petersburg</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">ryabov-ov@ranepa.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Десятниченко</surname><given-names>О. Ю.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Desyatnichenko</surname><given-names>O. Yu.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Десятниченко Олеся Юрьевна - доцент кафедры экономики Северо-Западного института управления РАНХиГС, кандидат экономических наук, доцент.</p><p>Санкт-Петербург</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Olesya Yu. Desyatnichenko - Associate Professor of the Chair of Economics of North-West Institute of Management, Branch of RANEPA, PhD in Economics, Associate Professor.</p><p>St. Petersburg</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">desyatnichenko-oy@ranepa.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Российская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте Российской Федерации (Северо-Западный институт управления РАНХиГС)</institution></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (North-West Institute of Management of RANEPA)</institution></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2021</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>11</day><month>01</month><year>2022</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>12</issue><fpage>95</fpage><lpage>110</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Десятниченко Д.Ю., Рябов О.В., Десятниченко О.Ю., 2022</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2022</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Десятниченко Д.Ю., Рябов О.В., Десятниченко О.Ю.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Desyatnichenko D.Y., Ryabov O.V., Desyatnichenko O.Y.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.acjournal.ru/jour/article/view/1778">https://www.acjournal.ru/jour/article/view/1778</self-uri><abstract><p>В статье рассматривается эволюция пруденциального подхода к регулированию банковской деятельности, исследуется практический вклад Базельского комитета по банковскому надзору в разработку и внедрение унифицированных на международном уровне практик и процедур стресс-тестирования и надзора. Авторы разделяют точку зрения о том, что существующие методики и практики стресс-тестирования по-прежнему нуждаются в улучшениях и методических доработках, поскольку регулярно допускают практическую реализацию неблагоприятных сценариев, приводящих к финансовым потрясениям и глобальным кризисам. В качестве существенного недостатка многих активно используемых моделей стресс-тестирования отмечается то, что они часто ориентированы на сложные, высоко забюрократизированные процедуры составления и анализа финансовой отчетности, основной целью которых является оценка вероятностей и размеров убытков и выявление сценариев развития ситуации для каждого конкретного банка, а не рисков для финансовой системы в целом. Авторы приходят к выводу о целесообразности приоритетного использования в кризисных и посткризисных условиях альтернативных моделей стресс-тестирования, прогнозы в рамках которых основываются на фактических значениях показателей финансового рынка, макроэкономических переменных, иных открытых данных. Особое внимание уделяется стилизованной модели CLASS, основанной на простых эконометрических моделях, а также модели стресс-тестирования текущей рыночной стоимости V-lab. По итогам исследования авторы приходят к ряду выводов о том, что в процедурах, методиках, алгоритмах макропруденциального стресс-тестирования, используемых в России, должна усиливаться роль макроэкономической составляющей, расширяться степень вовлеченности и сфера ответственности за его результаты ключевых институциональных единиц системы государственного управления, а само макропруденциальное стресс-тестирование не должно сводиться в повседневной практике лишь к надзорному стресс-тестированию.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The article examines the evolution of the prudential approach to banking regulation, examines the practical contribution of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision to the development and implementation of internationally unified practices and procedures for stress testing and supervision. The authors share the point of view that the existing methods and practices of stress testing still need improvements and methodological improvements, since they regularly allow the practical implementation of adverse scenarios leading to financial shocks and global crises. As a significant disadvantage of many actively used stress testing models, it is noted that they are often focused on complex, highly bureaucratic procedures for the preparation and analysis of financial statements, the main purpose of which is to assess the probabilities and sizes of losses and identify scenarios for the development of the situation for each specific bank, and no risks for the financial system as a whole. The authors come to the conclusion that it is advisable to prioritize the use of alternative stress testing models in crisis and post-crisis conditions, the forecasts within which are based on the actual values of financial market indicators, macroeconomic variables, and other open data. Special attention is paid to the stylized CLASS model, based on simple econometric models, as well as stress testing the current market value of V-lab. Based on the results of the study, the authors come to a number of conclusions that the role of the macroeconomic component in the procedures, methods, and algorithms for macroprudential stress testing used in Russia should increase, the degree of involvement and the sphere of responsibility for its results of key institutional units of the public administration system should expand, and macroprudential stress testing itself should not be limited to supervisory stress testing in everyday practice.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>макропруденциальное регулирование</kwd><kwd>банковское регулирование</kwd><kwd>макропруденциальная политика</kwd><kwd>модели стресс-тестирования</kwd><kwd>устойчивость финансовой системы</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>macroprudential regulation</kwd><kwd>banking regulation</kwd><kwd>macroprudential policy</kwd><kwd>stress testing models</kwd><kwd>financial system stability</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Исследование выполнено при финансовой поддержке Фонда развития научных исследований и прикладных разработок СЗИУ РАНХиГС</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Akinci O., Olmstead-Rumsey J. 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