managementranepaУправленческое консультированиеAdministrative Consulting1726-11391816-8590Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. North-West Institute of Management.WLVCVMmanagementranepa-2963Research ArticleОБЩЕСТВЕННОЕ РАЗВИТИЕ: ИСТОРИЧЕСКИЕ, НАЦИОНАЛЬНЫЕ, МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫЕ И ГЛОБАЛЬНЫЕ АСПЕКТЫSOCIAL DEVELOPMENT: HISTORICAL, NATIONAL, INTERNATIONAL AND GLOBAL ASPECTSСравнительный индексный анализ устойчивости политической системы (на примере Китая и Турции)Comparative Index Analysis of the Stability of the Political System (On the Example of China and Turkey)https://orcid.org/0009-0002-3381-3000НамазовО. Б.NamazovO. B.

Намазов Орхан Бахаддин оглы - преподаватель кафедры социальных технологий, СевероЗападный институт управления.

Санкт-Петербург

Orhan B. Namazov - Lecturer of the Department of Social Technologies.

St. Petersburg

namazov-ob@ranepa.ruhttps://orcid.org/0009-0001-7636-413XКулешС. А.KuleshS. A.

Кулеш Семен Алексеевич - преподаватель кафедры социальных технологий, Северо-Западный институт управления.

Санкт-Петербург

Semyon A. Kulesh - Lecturer of the Department of Social Technologies, North-West Institute of Management.

St. Petersburg

sem.kulesh@mail.ruРоссийская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте Российской Федерации, Северо-Западный институт управленияRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, North-West Institute of Management20262904202602228238Copyright © Намазов О.Б., Кулеш С.А., 20262026Намазов О.Б., Кулеш С.А.Namazov O.B., Kulesh S.A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.acjournal.ru/jour/article/view/2963

Данное исследование посвящено сравнительному индексному анализу источников стабильности политических систем Китайской Народной Республики и Турецкой Республики.

Цель работы: выявить и сопоставить институциональные, идеологические, политические и социальные механизмы, обеспечивающие их устойчивость к внутренним и внешним вызовам.

Научная новизна заключается в применении единой аналитической модели Гаджиева— Семченкова с количественной оценкой (баллы устойчивости) к двум различным типам политических систем, что позволяет системно сравнить их адаптационные стратегии.

Методология основана на компаративном анализе с синтезом данных из академических, статистических публикаций, социологических опросов и официальных документов за период 2020–2025 гг.

Результаты проведенного исследования показывают, что устойчивость КНР базируется на инфраструктуре Китайской коммунистической партии, идеологическом синтезе, экономической эффективности и подавлении инакомыслия, тогда как в Турции она обеспечивается концентрацией власти, тактической гибкостью элит, апелляцией к консервативным ценностям и контролем над силовым аппаратом, но подвержена рискам из-за экономических проблем и социальной поляризации.

Ограничением исследования является ретроспективно-аналитический характер, не позволяющий провести эмпирическую проверку причинно-следственных связей. Перспективными направлениями будущих исследований являются изучение трендов устойчивости в условиях смены политических элит, а также сравнительный анализ внутренних легитимизирующих нарративов и их восприятия населением.

In the context of the search for models of political stability in illiberal contexts, we conduct a comparative analysis of the sources of stability of the political systems of China and Turkey. The aim of the work is to identify and compare the institutional, ideological and social mechanisms that ensure their resilience to internal and external challenges. The scientific novelty lies in the application of a single analytical model with a quantitative assessment (stability scores) to two different types of authoritarian systems: institutional-ideocratic (PRC) and personalist-populist (Turkey), which allows a systematic comparison of their adaptation strategies. The methodology is based on comparative analysis with the synthesis of data from academic publications, official documents and opinion polls for the period 2020–2025. The main results show that the stability of China is based on the centralized institutions of the Chinese Communist Party, ideological synthesis, economic efficiency and suppression of the opposition, while the stability of Turkey is ensured by the concentration of power, tactical flexibility of the elites, appeal to conservative values and control over the security apparatus, but is subject to risks due to economic problems and social polarization. The limitation of the study is its retrospective and analytical nature, which does not allow empirical verification of cause-and-effect relationships.

КитайТурцияустойчивостьполитические системыКитайская коммунистическая партияПартия справедливости и развитияПартия националистического действияChinaTurkeysustainabilitypolitical systemsChinese Communist PartyJustice and Development PartyNationalist Action PartyReferencesБилюга С. Э. Политическая стабильность: основные подходы к анализу устойчивости политических систем // Век глобализации. 2018. № 2. С. 46–56. DOI: 10.30884/vglob/2018.02.04Bilyuga S. E. Political stability: basic approaches to the analysis of the stability of political systems // Age of Globalization [Vek globalizacii]. 2018. N 2. P. 46–56. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.30884/vglob/2018.02.04Бобылев М. Б., Ковалева Е. В. Концепт «политическая стабильность» в западном и отечественном политическом дискурсе последнего десятилетия // Abyss (Вопросы философии, политологии и социальной антропологии). 2021. № 4. C. 89–101. EDN ZSHZIMBobylev M. B., Kovaleva E. V. The concept of “political stability” in Western and domestic political discourse of the last decade // Abyss (Issues of philosophy, Political science and social anthropology) [Abyss (Voprosy filosofii, politologii i social’noj antropologii)]. 2021. N 4. P. 89–101. (In Russ.). EDN ZSHZIMГаджиев Х. А., Семченков А. С. Индекс устойчивости политической системы: опыт измерений в трех странах // PolitBook. 2020. № 1. С. 161–194. EDN ZFSAIYGadzhiev H. A., Semchenkov A. S. Index of stability of the political system: measurement experience in three countries // PolitBook. 2020. N 1. P. 161–194. (In Russ.) EDN ZFSAIYГаджиев Х. А., Семченков А. С. Устойчивость политической системы Республики Казахстан (Индексный анализ) // Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз (Журнал политической философии и социологии политики). 2021. № 4. С. 115–144. DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2021103-4-115-144Gadzhiev H. A., Semchenkov A. S. Stability of the political system of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Index analysis) // Politics: An analysis. The chronicle. Prognosis (Journal of Political Philosophy and Sociology of Politics) [Politiya: Analiz. Hronika. Prognoz (Zhurnal politicheskoj filosofii i sociologii politiki)]. 2021. N 4. P. 115–144. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2021-103-4-115-144Политология. Новый лексикон / под ред. А. И. Соловьева. М. : Аспект Пресс, 2023. 432 с. ISBN 978-5-7567-1279-7Political Science. A new vocabulary / Edited by A. I. Solovyov. Moscow: Aspekt Press, 2023. 432 p. ISBN 978-5-7567-1279-7. (In Russ.).Решетникова Д. А. Система Тянься и современная политика устойчивого развития Китайской Народной Республики // Устойчивое развитие: перед лицом глобальных вызовов : Сборник материалов конференции, Санкт-Петербург, 25–27 мая 2023 года. СПб. : Санкт-Петербургский государственный экономический университет, 2023. С. 268–274.Reshetnikova D. A. The Tianxia system and the modern policy of sustainable development of the People’s Republic of China // Sustainable development: facing global challenges: Proceedings of the conference, St. Petersburg, May 25–27, 2023. Saint Petersburg: Saint Petersburg State University of Economics, 2023. P. 268–274. (In Russ.).Barbalet J. Conceptualising informal institutions: Drawing on the case of guanxi // British Journal of Sociology. 2022. Vol. 74. P. 71–83. DOI: 10.1111/1468-4446.12984Barbalet J. Conceptualising informal institutions: Drawing on the case of guanxi // British Journal of Sociology. 2022. Vol. 74. P. 71–83. DOI: 10.1111/1468-4446.12984Cai Y., Hajikanov N., Kaspereit T. Local party committee and labor cost asymmetry // Journal of Management Control. 2024. Vol. 35 (378). P. 371–403. DOI: 10.1007/s00187-024-00380-7Cai Y., Hajikanov N., Kaspereit T. Local party committee and labor cost asymmetry // Journal of Management Control. 2024. Vol. 35 (378). P. 371–403. DOI: 10.1007/s00187-024-00380-7Cengiz F. . Proliferation of neopatrimonial domination in Turkey // British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies. 2018. DOI: 10.1080/13530194.2018.1509693Cengiz F. Ç Proliferation of neopatrimonial domination in Turkey // British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies. 2018. DOI: 10.1080/13530194.2018.1509693Huhe N., Chen J., Chen Y. Flies, tigers, and the leviathan: anti-corruption campaigns and popular political support in China // Japanese Journal of Political Science. 2022. Vol. 23. P. 193–208. DOI: 10.1017/s146810992200010x.Huhe N., Chen J., Chen Y. Flies, tigers, and the leviathan: anti-corruption campaigns and popular political support in China // Japanese Journal of Political Science. 2022. Vol. 23. P. 193–208. DOI: 10.1017/s146810992200010x.Irgil E., Norman K. P. Assessing the domestic political impacts of Turkey’s refugee commodification // Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies. 2024. Vol. 50 (16). P. 3855–3871. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2024.2332747Irgil E., Norman K. P. Assessing the domestic political impacts of Turkey’s refugee commodification // Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies. 2024. Vol. 50 (16). P. 3855–3871. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2024.2332747Jiang J., Zeng Y. Countering Capture: Elite Networks and Government Responsiveness in China’s Land Market Reform // Forthcoming, Journal of Politics. 2018. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3300650Jiang J., Zeng Y. Countering Capture: Elite Networks and Government Responsiveness in China’s Land Market Reform // Forthcoming, Journal of Politics. 2018. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3300650Kemahlıoğlu, Ö., Yeğen, O. Surviving the COVID-19 Pandemic under Right-wing Populist Rule: Turkey in the First Phase // South European Society and Politics. 2021. P. 1–30. DOI: 10.1080/13608746.2021.1985497., . Surviving the COVID-19 Pandemic under Right-wing Populist Rule: Turkey in the First Phase // South European Society and Politics. 2021. P. 1–30. DOI: 10.1080/13608746.2021.1985497Lu J., Dickson B. Revisiting the Eastonian Framework on Political Support: Assessing Different Measures of Regime Support in Mainland China // Comparative Politics. 2020. Vol. 52. P. 671– 701. DOI: 10.5129/001041520x15810803375925Lu J., Dickson B. Revisiting the Eastonian Framework on Political Support: Assessing Different Measures of Regime Support in Mainland China // Comparative Politics. 2020. Vol. 52. P. 671–701. DOI: 10.5129/001041520x15810803375925Lu S., Wang H. Central Authority, Local Elite Group and the Pace of Land Market Reform in China // SSRN Electronic Journal. 2019. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3488213Lu S., Wang H. Central Authority, Local Elite Group and the Pace of Land Market Reform in China // SSRN Electronic Journal. 2019. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3488213Mao Y. Political institutions, state capacity, and crisis management: A comparison of China and South Korea // International Political Science Review. 2021. Vol. 42 (3). P. 316–332. DOI: 10.1177/0192512121994026Mao Y. Political institutions, state capacity, and crisis management: A comparison of China and South Korea // International Political Science Review. 2021. Vol. 42 (3). P. 316–332. DOI: 10.1177/0192512121994026Mardin . Center-Periphery Relations: A Key to Turkish Politics? // Daedalus. 1973. N 1. P. 169–190.Mardin . Center-Periphery Relations: A Key to Turkish Politics? // Daedalus. 1973. N 1. P. 169–190.Masafumi I. Xi Jinping’s diplomacy and the rise of his political authority // Journal of Contemporary East Asia Studies. 2020. Vol. 9. P. 127–143. DOI: 10.1080/24761028.2020.1843217Masafumi I. Xi Jinping’s diplomacy and the rise of his political authority // Journal of Contemporary East Asia Studies. 2020. Vol. 9. P. 127–143. DOI: 10.1080/24761028.2020.1843217Qiu T., Li Y. et al. Alternative modes of governance: Clans and social instability in rural China // China Economic Review. 2024. Vol. 84. DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102136Qiu T., Li Y. et al. Alternative modes of governance: Clans and social instability in rural China // China Economic Review. 2024. Vol. 84. DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102136Rosen A. Political Reasons and the Limits of Political Authority // Legal Theory. 2023. Vol. 29. P. 63–88. DOI: 10.1017/s1352325223000022Rosen A. Political Reasons and the Limits of Political Authority // Legal Theory. 2023. Vol. 29. P. 63–88. DOI: 10.1017/s1352325223000022Shichor Y. Handling China’s Internal Security: Division of Labor among Armed Forces in Xinjiang // Journal of Contemporary China. 2019. Vol. 28. P. 813–830. DOI: 10.1080/1067056 4.2019.1580426Shichor Y. Handling China’s Internal Security: Division of Labor among Armed Forces in Xinjiang // Journal of Contemporary China. 2019. Vol. 28. P. 813–830. DOI: 10.1080/10670564.2019.1580426Song Y., Chen B. Are the Defense Policy and Military Expenditure in China Economically or Politically Driven? // Journal of Chinese Political Science. 2024. DOI: 10.1007/s11366-02409884-4Song Y., Chen B. Are the Defense Policy and Military Expenditure in China Economically or Politically Driven? // Journal of Chinese Political Science. 2024. DOI: 10.1007/s11366-02409884-4P., Matejova M., Jusko J., Voda P. Shaky ground, shaky politics? Effects of Türkiye’s 2023 earthquakes on Erdoğan’s political survival // Environmental Hazards. 2024. Vol. 1-21. P. 14–17. DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2024.2442446P., Matejova M., Jusko J., Voda P. Shaky ground, shaky politics? Effects of 2023 earthquakes on political survival // Environmental Hazards. 2024. Vol. 1–21. P. 14–17. DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2024.2442446Takeuchi H., Desai S. Chinese politics and comparative authoritarianism: institutionalization and adaptation for regime resilience // Japanese Journal of Political Science. 2021. Vol. 22. P. 1–12. DOI: 10.1017/S1468109921000268Takeuchi H., Desai S. Chinese politics and comparative authoritarianism: institutionalization and adaptation for regime resilience // Japanese Journal of Political Science. 2021. Vol. 22. P. 1–12. DOI: 10.1017/S1468109921000268Tian X., Sarkis J. et al. Greening the Belt and Road Initiative: Evidence from emergy evaluation of China’s provincial trade with ASEAN countries // Fundamental Research. Vol. 4. 2022. P. 379–393. DOI: 10.1016/j.fmre.2022.11.007Tian X., Sarkis J. et al. Greening the Belt and Road Initiative: Evidence from emergy evaluation of China’s provincial trade with ASEAN countries // Fundamental Research. Vol. 4. 2022. P. 379–393. DOI: 10.1016/j.fmre.2022.11.007Yilmaz I. Authoritarianism, Informal Law, and Legal Hybridity: The Islamisation of the State in Turkey. Singapore: Palgrave Macmillan, 2022. 258 p.Yilmaz I. Authoritarianism, Informal Law, and Legal Hybridity: The Islamisation of the State in Turkey. Singapore: Palgrave Macmillan, 2022. 258 p.Yilmaz I. Islamist Parties and Power in Democratic Nation-States. A Comparative Analysis of Six Muslim-Majority Countries. Singapore, 2024. 302 p.Yilmaz I. Islamist Parties and Power in Democratic Nation-States. A Comparative Analysis of Six Muslim-Majority Countries. Singapore, 2024. 302 p.Zhang B., Zhou W. An empirical study of “public security centralism” in modern China and its legal and political ramifications // International Journal of Law, Crime and Justice. 2024. Vol. 76. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijlcj.2023.100648Zhang B., Zhou W. An empirical study of “public security centralism” in modern China and its legal and political ramifications // International Journal of Law, Crime and Justice. 2024. Vol. 76. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijlcj.2023.100648Zhao M., Ma L., Chan H. S. The Illusion of Merit in Political Leadership Selection in China // The China Quarterly. 2023. P. 38–58. DOI: 10.1017/s0305741023000802Zhao M., Ma L., Chan H. S. The Illusion of Merit in Political Leadership Selection in China // The China Quarterly. 2023. P. 38–58. DOI: 10.1017/s0305741023000802Esen B., ., Yavuzyılmaz H. Yeni Rejimi: Otoriterlik (Новый режим Турции: конкурентный авторитаризм) Istanbul: İletişim Yayınları, 2023. 288 p. ISBN 9789750539091.Esen B., ., Yavuzyılmaz H. Turkey’s New Regime. Competitive Authoritarianism. Istanbul: Yayınları, 2023. 288 p. ISBN 9789750539091. (In Turk.).Yıldız M. Toplumunun Siyasal Anatomisi (Политическая анатомия турецкого общества в контексте исследования мировых ценностей) // Toplum Ve Kimlik Dergisi. 2025. Vol. 1. P. 132–146. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.14789876Yıldız M. The Political Anatomy of Turkish Society in the Context of World Values Research // Journal of Society аnd Identity [Toplum Ve Kimlik Dergisi.] 2025. Vol. 1. P. 132–146. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.14789876. (In Turk.).

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.