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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">managementranepa</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Управленческое консультирование</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Administrative Consulting</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1726-1139</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1816-8590</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. North-West Institute of Management.</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">managementranepa-470</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ГОСУДАРСТВЕННОЕ УПРАВЛЕНИЕ - ДРАЙВЕР ИЛИ ТОРМОЗ РАЗВИТИЯ?</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Агент-ориентированные модели как инструмент апробации управленческих решений</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Agent-Based Models as a Means of Testing of Management Solutions</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Макаров</surname><given-names>В. Л.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Makarov</surname><given-names>Valery Leonidovich</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">noemail@neicon.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Бахтизин</surname><given-names>А. Р.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Bakhtizin</surname><given-names>Albert Raufovich</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">noemail@neicon.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Сушко</surname><given-names>Е. Д.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Sushko</surname><given-names>Elena Davidovna</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">noemail@neicon.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН</institution></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>The Central economic-mathematical institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences</institution></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2016</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>17</day><month>04</month><year>2018</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>12</issue><fpage>16</fpage><lpage>25</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Макаров В.Л., Бахтизин А.Р., Сушко Е.Д., 2018</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2018</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Макаров В.Л., Бахтизин А.Р., Сушко Е.Д.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Sushko E.D.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.acjournal.ru/jour/article/view/470">https://www.acjournal.ru/jour/article/view/470</self-uri><abstract><p>В работе показано применение агент-ориентированного подхода при моделировании социо-эколого-экономических процессов, дан обзор наиболее характерных агент-ориентированных моделей (АОМ), разработанных за последние годы для решения практических задач территориального управления. Показана целесообразность использования АОМ как инструмента планирования развития территорий, в том числе стратегического. Представлена конструкция разработанной авторами территориальной демографической модели, в которой на основе поведения отдельных членов искусственного общества имитируются процессы смертности, рождаемости и миграции. Так, создание новых агентов (рождение детей) в модели является результатом выбора агентов-женщин репродуктивного возраста, и выбор этот зависит от их внутренних установок. При этом популяция агентов в этом отношении неоднородна - часть агентов придерживается современной репродуктивной стратегии (с низкой рождаемостью), а часть - традиционной (с высокой рождаемостью). Миграция агентов обусловлена разницей в уровне среднедушевых доходов как между различными территориями внутри страны, так и между различными странами. При выборе цели миграции большое значение имеют социальные связи агентов. Представленная конструкция послужила основой создания трех АОМ: 1) модели воспроизводства населения Санкт-Петербурга; 2) модели трудовой миграции из приграничных территорий Китая в Россию; 3) модели внутренней и внешней миграции в странах Европейского союза. Все модели были апробированы в ходе компьютерных экспериментов на реальных данных. Получены предварительные результаты, показавшие адекватную реакцию моделей на изменения управляемых параметров, связанных с экономическими и институциональными характеристиками среды агентов.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The paper shows the application of agent-based approach to modeling of social, ecological and economic processes. An overview of the most typical agent-based model (ABM), developed in recent years to solve practical problems of territorial administration is given. The expediency of using ABM as a development planning tool areas, including strategic, is shown. A territory-population model developed by the authors is based on the behavior of individual members of artificial society and simulates the processes of mortality, fertility and migration. The creation of new agents (birth of children) in the model is the result of the choice of female agents of reproductive age, and this choice depends on their value system. At the same time the population of agents in this regard is not uniform - agents stick to different reproductive strategies: modern (low fertility), and traditional (high fertility). The migration of agents depends on the difference in the level of per capita income both between different areas within a country and between countries. The migration variants for individual agent depend on it’s social ties. The presented design served as the basis for creating three ABMs: 1) model of reproduction of the population of St. Petersburg; 2) labor migration model from the border areas of China into Russia; 3) model of internal and external migration in the European Union. All models have been tested in the course of computer experiments on real data. Preliminary results show an adequate response to changing patterns of controlled parameters related to the economic and institutional characteristics of the agents of the environment.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>агент-ориентированное моделирование</kwd><kwd>демография</kwd><kwd>международная миграция</kwd><kwd>трудовая миграция</kwd><kwd>прогнозирование численности и структуры населения</kwd><kwd>территориальное планирование</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>agent-based modeling</kwd><kwd>demography</kwd><kwd>international migration</kwd><kwd>labor migration</kwd><kwd>prediction of population size and structure</kwd><kwd>territory planning</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Макаров В. Л., Бахтизин А. Р. Социальное моделирование - новый компьютерный прорыв (агент-ориентированные модели). 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