Analysis of Trends in the Higher Education and Science as the Basis for Strategizing the Scientific and Innovative Activities in Regional Universities

Aim of the article is to identify global, national and local trends in the development of higher education and science, which should be taken into account when strategizing the scientific and innovative activities of a regional university (in the conditions of the Kemerovo region — Kuzbass).

Materials and methods. The methodological and theoretical basis of the study is the theory of strategy and the strategy methodology developed by V. L. Kvint (Moscow State University named after M. V. Lomonosov), which made it possible to substantiate the analysis of opportunities and threats as the initial stage of strategizing the scientific and innovative activities of a regional university. The methods of OTSW-analysis, economic-statistical analysis, comparative analysis were used Analytical and forecast documents of authoritative Russian and international organizations dealing with the problems of science and higher education were used.

results. 12 trends of various levels are identified that determine the opportunities and threats for the strategic development of scientific and innovative activities in the universities of the Kemerovo region — Kuzbass. At the global level, these include a decrease in demand for higher education and the need for scientific and innovative diversification; the growth of the global research and development market, especially in certain niches; growth in the share of research and development funding by commercial organizations; influence on the research topics of the international agenda, including the UN sustainable development goals. The main national trends are instability and limited funding for research and development, the growing interest of the state in fundamental research; maintaining a low level of integration of universities with business with the growth of the innovative activity of the latter; the growing stratification of the domestic higher education. In the Kemerovo region — Kuzbass, the most important trends are the structural transformation of the traditional university system with increased competition among universities; limited demand for research and development, not corresponding to the economic importance of the region; creation of institutional foundations for the development of scientific and innovative activities and the strategic goals of Kuzbass for scientific and technological development, which determine promising areas of research.

Conclusions. Based on the analysis of strategically significant trends, the first stage of the OTSW analysis was implemented, the opportunities and threats that determine the strategic development of research activities of the universities of the Kemerovo region — Kuzbass were identified.

1. Bavykina E. N., Fomina S. A., Koretskaya T. V. Marketing strategies in the market of educa-tional services as a basis for the strategy of sustainable development of the university // Economics of sustainable development [Jekonomika ustojchivogo razvitija]. 2021. N 3. P. 20–24. (in Rus)

2. Gorelova G. G., Shibanova E. K., Stepanov V. A. The concept of a strategy for the development of a regional university based on the needs of the subjects of the educational space // Middle Russian Bulletin of Social Sciences [Srednerusskij vestnik obshhestvennyh nauk]. 2015. N 5. P. 25–34. (in Rus)

3. Emelyanova I. N. Strategic priorities of a classical university: content analysis of missions // University management: practice and analysis [Universitetskoe upravlenie: praktika i analiz]. 2016. N 5. P. 4–14. (in Rus)

4. Ibrasheva B. S., Sharapova V. M. Analysis of factors for the development of university strategy based on SWOT analysis // Education and Law [Obrazovanie i pravo]. 2019. N 8. P. 258–263. (in Rus)

5. Kvint V. L. The concept of strategizing. Kemerovo: Kemerovo State University, 2020. 170 p. (in Rus)

6. Kvint V. L. Strategy development: monitoring and forecasting the internal and external environ-ment // Administrative consulting [Upravlencheskoe konsul’tirovanie]. 2015. N 7. P. 6–11. (in Rus)

7. Kvint V. L., Astapov K. L. Strategy of Kuzbass for a 50-year perspective in the books of the Library “Strategy of Kuzbass” //Strategizing: Theory and Practice [Strategirovanie: teorija i praktika]. 2021. N 2. P. 123–135. (in Rus)

8. Kvint V. L., Khvorostyanaya A. S., Sasaev N. I. Avant-garde technologies in the process of strat-egizing // Economics and Management [Jekonomika i upravlenie]. 2020. N 11. P. 1170–1179. (in Rus)

9. Conceptual future of Kuzbass: strategic contours of development priorities up to 2071. 50-year perspective / ed. V. L. Kvint. Kemerovo : Kemerovo State University, 2022. 283 p. (in Rus)

10. Korchagina I. V. Income of flagship universities in Russia: dynamics and trends. Universitetskoe upravlenie: praktika i analiz [Universitetskoe upravlenie: praktika i analiz]. 2021. N 2. P. 141–157. (in Rus)

11. Kuznetsov V. V., Lukina A. V., Malova D. V. Principles and mechanisms of the university sustainable development strategy // Bulletin of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics [Vestnik Rossijskogo gosudarstvennogo jekonomicheskogo universiteta im. G. V. Plehanova]. 2017. N 1. P. 56–64. (in Rus)

12. Matveeva E. V. Building a communicative strategy of a higher education institution of culture in the market of educational services // Alma Mater (Bulletin of Higher School) [Alma Mater (Vestnik vysshej shkoly)]. 2021. N 9. P. 48–54. (in Rus)

13. Tomilin O. B., Klyuev A. K. “Black swans” of the organizational design of Russian universities // Higher education in Russia [Vysshee obrazovanie v Rossii]. 2021. N 8–9. P. 44–55. (in Rus)

14. Trubilin A. I., Gaiduk V. I., Kondrashova A. V. Strategy for the development of an agrarian university in the post-pandemic period // Scientific Works of the Free Economic Society of Russia [Nauchnye trudy Vol’nogo jekonomicheskogo obshhestva Rossii]. 2020. N 3. P. 329–338. (in Rus)

15. Tkhapsagoev Kh.G. University: to the strategy of movement “beyond the horizon” // Higher education in Russia [Vysshee obrazovanie v Rossii]. 2019. N 8–9. P. 83–90. (in Rus)

16. Aucejo E. M., French J., Ugalde Araya M. P., Zafar B. The impact of COVID-19 on student experiences and expectations: Evidence from a survey // Journal of Public Economics. 2020. Vol. 191. Art. 104271.

17. Davies S., Zarifa D. The stratification of universities: Structural inequality in Canada and the United States // Research in Social Stratification and Mobility. 2012. Vol. 30. N 2. P. 143–158.

18. Dorantes A. R., Low J. R. Financial crisis management in higher education: responses by 20 private colleges and universities to the 2007-2009 financial crisis // Journal of Education Finance. 2016. Vol. 42. N 2. P. 188–219.

19. Douglass J. A. Vibrant urban university with a growing global presence: thoughts on what Malmö University could be. Malmö: Malmö University, 2017. 56 p.

20. Ewing L. A. Rethinking higher education post COVID-19 // The Future of Service Post-COVID-19 Pandemic. 2021. Vol. 1. P. 37–54.

21. Glaze A. L. Teaching and learning science in the 21st century: challenging critical assumptions in post-secondary science // Education Sciences. 2018. Vol. 8. N 1. Art. 12.

22. Kromydas T. Rethinking higher education and its relationship with social inequalities: past knowledge, present state and future potential // Palgrave Communications. 2017. Vol. 3. Art. 1.

23. Musselin C. New forms of competition in higher education // Socio-Economic Review. 2018. Vol. 16. N 3. P. 657–683.

24. Odden T. O., Marin A., Rudolph J. L. How has Science Education changed over the last 100 years? An analysis using natural language processing // Science Education. 2021. Vol. 105. N 4. P. 653–680.

25. Osborne J. Science Education for the twenty first century // Eurasia Journal of Mathematics, Science & Technology Education. 2007. Vol. 3. N 3. P. 173–184.

26. Pavlov O. V., Katsamakas E. Will colleges survive the storm of declining enrollments? A computational model // PLoS ONE. 2020. Vol. 15. N 8. Art. e0236872.