Assessment of the Effectiveness of the Policy of Implementing Infrastructure Projects in the Region (Using the Example of the Amur Region)

Relevance. The study is devoted to the analysis of the possibility of using the synthetic control method to assess the effectiveness of policies for the implementation of large projects. The Amur region has been selected for the study, where in recent years the construction of a gas processing plant has been underway, which is an important link in the technological supply of natural gas to China via the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, and the main stage of construction of the Vostochny cosmodrome has been completed.

Objective. To evaluate the policy effectiveness of large-scale infrastructure projects on the development of Amur region.

Hypothesis. The development experience of each region is unique, especially considering the implementation of large infrastructure projects. Development requires an assessment of the optimality of management decisions and the resources used, for which a number of modern methodological tools have been developed. It is assumed that the impact of projects on development is positive, they serve as a multiplier of growth, but this is not obvious for Russian regions, since previously such effects have not been sufficiently studied.

Method. The study employs the synthetic control method, which enables the creation of a counterfactual regional development scenario for comparison. The method was implemented using Python programming language in Jupyter Notebook environment. This method is particularly relevant for the study as it provides an empirical evaluation of government decision effectiveness during large-scale economic transformations, offering clear interpretability and reliability through statistical verification of results. This marks the first application of the method for analyzing indicators in Amur Region.

The results may prove valuable for shaping regional policies and for research in public administration and sectoral regulation of other Russian regions. The study demonstrates significant growth in key indicators such as gross regional product and average monthly nominal wages since 2018, with statistical verification of the obtained data. This growth is associated with effective regional policies for infrastructure project implementation.

Key conclusion. The study confirms the applicability of the synthetic control method for assessing policy impacts when examining unique interventions, such as the infrastructure projects implemented in Amur region in recent years.

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