Factors Affecting Demographic Processes in the Regions of the Russian Federation: An Empirical Analysis

The development of a system of indicators and methodologies for monitoring and assessing progress toward achieving the goals of the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation N 312 of May 7, 2024, «On the National Development Goals of the Russian Federation for the Period up to 2030 and for the Perspective Up to 2036» is currently an important applied task.

The purpose of this article is to assess the factors influencing demographic processes in Russia's regions within the framework of achieving the national goal of «preserving the popula tion, improving health and well-being, and supporting families».

Based on the analysis of foreign and Russian literature on the subject matter, the author substantiated the factors influencing the birth rate (poverty level, unemployment rate, primary real estate value, residential area per capita, personal loan debt, number of women aged 18 to 45) and the death rate (poverty level, number of hospital beds per 10,000 people, retail sales of alcoholic beverages per capita, share of employed population with higher education, number of registered crimes per 100,000 people, air pollutant emissions from stationary sources).

The study period was 2013–2023, the object was 85 regions of the Russian Federation, and the source of primary statistical information was collections and databases of the Federal State Statistics Service. Empirically, a negative impact of poverty and loan debt on the birth rate in the regions of the Russian Federation was revealed. A 1% decrease in the price per square meter of residential real estate increases the birth rate in a region by 0.22 %. A significant direct impact on mortality in Russian regions was found for the factors “crime rate” and “retail sales of alcoholic beverages”. A 1 % increase in the share of the employed population with higher education reduces mortality by 0.7 %. Contradictory results were obtained for factors such as “unemployment rate”, “residential area per capita”, “number of hospital beds”, and “air pollutant emissions from stationary sources”, requiring further analysis and evaluation.

This study complements the existing body of work assessing the conditions and factors of demographic processes.

1. Ageev A. I., Bakhtizin A. R., Loginov E. L., Sidorenko M. Yu. Strategic Perspectives of the Demographic Component of Russia’s National Power // Economic Strategies [Ekonomicheskie strategii]. 2023. N 5 (191). Р. 38–53. DOI 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.38-53. (In Russ.).

2. Andreeva O. N. Methods for assessing the level and quality of life of the population // Oikumena. Regional Studies [Oikumena. Regionovedcheskie issledovaniya]. 2013. N 2. P. 112–120. EDN QIOWPT. (In Russ.).

3. Baranov A.O., Slepenkova Yu. M., Tagaeva T. O. Improvement of the statistics of human capital reproduction // Problems of Forecasting [Problemy prognozirovaniya]. 2020. N 1. Р. 22–31. EDN: WVKWDT. (In Russ.).

4. Blinova T.V., Bylina S. G., Rusanovskiy V.A. Modeling of factors influencing the reduction of mortality in the rural population of Russia // Industry: economy, management, technology [Promyshlennost’: ekonomika, upravlenie, tekhnologii]. 2020. N 2 (81). P. 21–25. EDN SERZKZ. (In Russ.).

5. Burykin I. M., Khafisyanova R. K. Influence of social factors on population mortality // Fundamental research [Fundamental’nye issledovaniya]. 2015. N 1. Р. 704–711. EDN RXCABO. (In Russ.).

6. Bystrov A. A. Mother’s Capital: Stimulating Fertility? // Sociological Studies [Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya]. 2008. N 12. Р. 91–96. EDN JUQDER. (In Russ.).

7. Gudkov A. B., Chashchin V. P., Demin A. V., Popova O. N. Assessment of quality of life and postural balance in women of older age groups who continue to work in their profession // Occupational medicine and industrial ecology [Meditsina truda i promyshlennaya ekologiya]. 2019. Vol. 59, N 8. Р. 473–478. DOI 10.31089/1026-9428-2019-59-8-473-478. EDN NVSFZY. (In Russ.).

8. Gurko T. A., Orlova N. A. The Influence of the Federal Program “Mother’s Capital” on Spouses’ Plans to Have a Second Child // Current Problems of Parenthood in Russia. Moscow: Institute of Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2013. Р. 103–118. 1 CD-ROM. EDN SDCSNF. (In Russ.).

9. Derstuganova T. M., Velichkovskiy B. T., Varaksin A. N. [et al.]. Assessment of the impact of socio-economic factors on the health state of the population of the Sverdlovsk region in the system of social-hygienic monitoring // Hygiene and Sanitation [Gigiena i sanitariya]. 2013. N 6. Р. 87–90. EDN RUHCAX. (In Russ.).

10. Zhuravlev D. M. Strategizing the digital transformation of complex socio-economic systems: monograph. Moscow; St. Petersburg: North-West Institute of Management of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, 2024. 352 p. (In Russ.).

11. Zhuravleva T. L., Gavrilova Y. A. Analysis of Fertility Determinants in Russia: What do RLMS Data Say? // HSE Economic Journal [Ekonomicheskii zhurnal VShE]. 2017. Vol. 21, N 1. Р. 145–187. EDN YMIQTF. (In Russ.).

12. Izmerov N. F., Tikhonova G. I. Problems of the health of the working population in Russia // Problems of Forecasting [Problemy prognozirovaniya]. 2011. N 3 (126). Р. 56–70. EDN OCPMRT. (In Russ.).

13. Ildarhanova Ch. I., Ershova G. N., Ershova Yu. N., Ibragimova A. A. Economic factors of increas ing fertility in the Volga Federal District: a retrospective analysis (2000–2020) // Modernization. Innovations. Development [MIR (Modernizatsiya. Innovatsii. Razvitie)]. 2022. Vol. 13, N 2. Р. 288–303. DOI 10.18184/2079-4665.2022.13.2.288-303. EDN FVYMOA. (In Russ.).

14. Kiku P. F., Gigaev D. S., Shiter N. S. [et al.]. The concept of risk factors for the health of the population // Bulletin of Physiology and Pathology of Respiration [Byulleten’ fiziologii i patologii dykhaniya]. 2016. N 62. P. 101–109. DOI 10.12737/23260. EDN XYEAZX. (In Russ.).

15. Kossova T. V., Kossova E. V., Sheluntsova M. A. The influence of alcohol consumption on mortality and life expectancy in the regions of Russia // Economic Policy [Ekonomicheskaya politika]. 2017. N 1. Р. 58–83. DOI 10.18288/1994-5124-2017-1-03. EDN YGGHLF. (In Russ.).

16. Kostryukova N. K., Karpin V. A., Gudkov A. B. Mortality of the population living in areas of local crustal faults // Problems of Social Hygiene, Public Health and History of Medicine [Problemy sotsial’noi gigieny, zdravookhraneniya i istorii meditsiny]. 2005. N 4. Р. 17–19. EDN OJZLQJ. (In Russ.).

17. Makarov V. L., Bakhtizin A. R. Long-term demographic forecasting in new realities // Scientific works of the Free Economic Society of Russia [Nauchnye trudy Vol’nogo ekonomicheskogo obshchestva Rossii]. 2022. Vol. 235, N 3. Р. 85–94. DOI 10.38197/2072-2060-2022-235-3-85 94. EDN POGJJG. (In Russ.).

18. Maleva T. M., Sinyavskaya O. V. Socio-economic factors of fertility in Russia: empirical mea surements and challenges to social policy // SPERO. 2006. N 5. Р. 70–97. EDN TTAKXN. (In Russ.).

19. Manaeva I. V. Quality of life in Russian regions: Empirical analysis/ // Problems of Territory’s Development [roblemy razvitiya territorii]. 2023. Vol. 27, N 4. Р. 71–92. DOI 10.15838/ptd.2023.4.126.5. EDN PPQPJV. (In Russ.).

20. Migranova L. A., Toksanbaeva M. S. Human Potential of the Population of Russian Regions: The Level and Dynamics of Development (Part One) // Living standards in Russian regions [Uroven’ zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii]. 2018. N 2 (208). Р. 47–59. DOI 10.24411/1999-9836-2018 10014. EDN XWEPDN. (In Russ.).

21. Migranova L. A., Toksanbaeva M. S. Human Potential of the Population of Russian Regions: The Level and Dynamics of Development (Part Two) // Living standards in Russian regions [Uroven’ zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii]. 2018. N 3 (209). Р. 59–72. DOI 10.24411/1999-9836-2018 10029. EDN YMREPJ. (In Russ.).

22. Mironovskaya A. V., Buzinov R. V., Gudkov A. B. Prognostic assessment of urgent cardiovascular pathology in the population of a northern urbanized territory // Healthcare of the Russian Federation [Zdravookhranenie Rossiiskoi Federatsii]. 2011. N 5. Р. 66–67. EDN OFWSOL. (In Russ.).

23. Morev M. V., Korolenko A. V. Assessment of demographic and socio-economic losses due to premature mortality of the population of Russia and the Vologda region // Problems of Forecasting [Problemy prognozirovaniya]. 2018. N 2. Р. 110–123. EDN YLXLIT. (In Russ.).

24. Novikova I. V. Strategizing Human Resource Development: Key Elements and Stages in: Strategizing: Theory and Practice [Strategirovanie: teoriya i praktika]. 2021. Vol. 1, N 1. Р. 57–65. DOI 10.21603/2782-2435-2021-1-1-57-65. (In Russ.).

25. Pastukhova E. Ya. Material welfare as a factor of influence on the population health in Russian regions // Society: Politics, Economics, Law [Obshchestvo: politika, ekonomika, pravo]. 2017. N 7. Р. 38–41. DOI 10.24158/pep.2017.8.8. EDN ZDRAYZ. (In Russ.).

26. Revich B. A., Avaliani S. L., Tikhonova G. I. Principles of Assessing the Impact of a Polluted Environment on Human Health. A Manual for Regional Environmental Policy. Moscow: Akropol, 2004. (In Russ.).

27. Roshchina Ya. M., Boykov A. V. Fertility Determinants in Modern Russia. Moscow: EERC, 2005. (In Russ.).

28. Rybakovsky O. L., Sudoplatova V. S., Tayunova O. A. Potential for reducing mortality in Russia // Sociological Studies [Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya]. 2017. N 3. Р. 29–42. EDN YMFZPD. (In Russ.).

29. Tyndik A. O. Reproductive Attitudes and Their Realization in Modern Russia // Journal of Social Policy Studies [Zhurnal issledovanii sotsial’noi politiki]. 2012. N 3. Р. 361–376. EDN PFEWPD. (In Russ.).

30. Khvorostyanaya A. S., Kvint V. L. Development and implementation of a regional strategy: main stages and priorities // North and market: formation of economic order [Sever i ry nok: formirovanie ekonomicheskogo poryadka]. 2025. N 3. Р. 25–34. DOI 10.37614/2220 802X.3.2025.89.002. (In Russ.).

31. Shabunova A. A., Duganov M. D., Kalashnikov K. N. Untimely death as a cause of economic losses in a region // Healthcare of the Russian Federation [Zdravookhranenie Rossiiskoi Federatsii]. 2012. N 3. Р. 26–30. EDN PEVZYZ. (In Russ.).

32. Andersson G., Hank K., Rønsen M., Vikat A. Gendering Family Composition: Sex Preferences for Children and Childbearing Behavior in the Nordic Countries // Demography. 2006. N 43 (2). Р. 255–267. DOI 10.1353/dem.2006.0010.

33. Anderton D. L., Tsuya N. O., Bean L. L., Mineau G. Р. Intergenerational Transmission of Relative Fertility and life Course Pattern // Demography. 1987. N 24. Р. 467–480. DOI 10.2307/2061386.

34. Becker G., Lewis H. G. On the Interaction between the Quality and the Quantity of Children // Journal of Political Economy. 1973. N 81 (2). Р. 279–288. DOI 10.1086/260166.

35. Berent J. Relationship between Family Sizes of the Successive Generations // Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly Bulletin. 1953. N 31. Р. 39–50. DOI 10.2307/3348423.

36. Blinova T., Bylina S., Rusanovskiy V. Factors Affecting the Life Expectancy at Birth of the Rural Population in Russia // Ponte. 2020. Vol. 78, N 1. Р. 9–18. DOI 10.21506/j.ponte.2020.1.2. EDN UBDTGG.

37. Del Boca D. The Effect of Child Care on Participation and Fertility // Journal of Population Economics. 2002. N 15 (3). Р. 549–573. DOI 10.1007/s001480100089.

38. Duncan O. D., Freedman R., Coble J. M., Slesinger D. P. Marital Fertility and Size of Family of Orientation // Demography. 1965. N 2. Р. 508–515. DOI 10.2307/2060135.

39. Ermisch J. Prices, Parents, and Young People’s Household Formation // Journal of Urban Economics. 1999. N 45 (1). Р. 47–71. DOI 10.1006/juec.1998.2083.

40. Gauthier A. The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility in Industrialized Countries: A Review of the Literature // Population Research and Policy Review. 2007. N 26. Р. 323–346. DOI 10.1007/s11113-007-9033-x.

41. Gustafsson S. S. Optimal Age at Motherhood. Theoretical and Empirical Considerations on Postponement of Maternity in Europe // Journal of Population Economics. 2001. N 14 (2). Р. 225–247. DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-55573-2_17.

42. Hendershot G. E. Familial Satisfaction, Birth Order, and Fertility Values // Journal of Marriage and the Family. 1969. N 31. Р. 27–33. DOI 10.2307/350003.

43. Hoem J. M. Overview chapter 8: The Impact of Public Policies on European Fertility // Demographic Research Special Collection. 2008. N 7 (19). Р. 249–260. DOI 10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.10.

44. Hoem J. M. Why Does Sweden Have Such High Fertility? // Demographic Research. 2005. N 13 (22). Р. 559–572. DOI 10.4054/DemRes.2005.13.22.

45. Kneale D., Joshi H. Postponement and Childlessness: Evidence from Two British Cohorts // Demographic Research. 2008. N 19. Р. 1935–1968. DOI 10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.58.

46. Leon D. A., Shkolnikov V. M., McKee M., Kiryanov N., Andreev E. Alcohol increases circulatory disease mortality in Russia: Acute and chronic effects or misattribution of cause? // International Journal of Epidemiology. 2010. N 39 (5). Р. 1279–1290. DOI 10.1093/ije/dyq102. EDN OHNQDV

47. Meron M., Widmer I. Unemployment Leads Women to Postpone the Birth of Their First Child // Population. 2002. Vol. 57, N 2. Р. 301–330. DOI 10.2307/3246611.

48. Miller A. R. The Effect of Motherhood Timing on Career Path // Journal of Population Economics. 2010. Vol. 24. N 3. Р. 1071–1100. DOI 10.1007/s00148-009-0296-x.

49. Mills M., Rindfuss R. R., McDonald P., Te Velde E. Why Do People Postpone Parenthood? // Reasons and Social Policy Incentives. Human Reproduction Update. 2011. N 17 (6). Р. 848–860. DOI 10.1093/humupd/dmr026.

50. Murphy M., Wang D. Family-level Continuities in Childbearing in Low-fertility Societies // European Journal of Population. 2001. N 17. Р. 75–96. DOI 10.1023/A:1010744314362.

51. Orsal D. D. K., Goldstein J. R. The Increasing Importance of Economic Conditions for Fertility. MPIDR Working Paper WP 2010–2014. Rostock: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, 2010. DOI 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-014.

52. Rindfuss R. R., Guilkey D. K., Morgan S. P., Kravdal O. Child-care Availability and Fertility in Norway // Population and Development Review. 2010. N 36 (4). Р. 725–748. DOI 10.1111/j.17284457.2010.00355.x.

53. Rondinelli C., Aassve A., Billari F. C. Women’s Wages and Childbearing Decisions: Evidence from Italy // Demographic Research. 2010. N 22 (19). Р. 549–578. DOI 10.4054/DemRes.2010.22.19.

54. Slonimczyk F., Yurko A. Assessing the Impact of the Maternity Capital Policy in Russia // Labour Economics. 2014. N 30. Р. 265–281. DOI 10.1016/j.labeco.2014.03.004. EDN UFHBHJ

55. Toulemon L., Testa M. Fertility intentions and actual fertility: A complex relationship [Online resource] // Population and Societies. 2005. N 415. Р. 1–4. URL: https://www.ined.fr/fichier/s_rubrique/18747/publi_pdf2_pop.and.soc.english.415.en.pdf (accessed: 20.10.2025).