Methodology for Estimating the Expected Cost of Engineering and Technology Innovation
https://doi.org/10.22394/1726-1139-2019-11-120-128
Abstract
The article proposes a methodology for estimating the expected cost of technical and technological innovations. The evaluation is performed in the pre-design phase of the innovation (project initiation phase). It relies on the method of analogy and is implemented based on the principle of “so was - so will be.” At the same time, the available analogues provide objective information about “how it was.” Extending this data into the future to estimate the cost of design relies on probabilistic interpretation of the available uncertainty. Uncertainty removal is accomplished using the principle of maximum entropy. This ensures the most complete consideration of the available objective information and minimizes speculation in assessing the cost of designing innovative objects. In general, the methodology proposed in the article allows obtaining objective estimates of the expected cost of designing technical and technological innovations in the standard information situation for the initiation stage of the project.
About the Authors
T. N. Saurenko
Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Tatyana N. Saurenko, Head of the Chair of Customs Affairs
Doctor of Science (Economics)
E. G. Anisimov
Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Evgeny G. Anisimov, Professor of the Chair of Customs Affairs
Doctor of Science (Engineering, Military Sciences), Professor
E. S. Rodionova
Saint-Petersburg named by V.B. Bobkov branch of the Russian Customs Academy
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Evgenia S. Rodionova, Associate Professor of the Chair of International Economic Relations
PhD in Economics
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For citations:
Saurenko T.N., Anisimov E.G., Rodionova E.S. Methodology for Estimating the Expected Cost of Engineering and Technology Innovation. Administrative Consulting. 2019;(11):120-128. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.22394/1726-1139-2019-11-120-128
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