Development of Mathematical Model for a Quantitative Assessment of Consequences of Illegal Financial Operations
Abstract
In this article we observe a short form of the computable model of the general equilibrium of social and economic system in Russian Federation. It is allowing to carry out a quantitative assessment of consequences of illegal financial operations is described (withdrawal of budgetary funds; evasion of taxes by natural and legal entities; a conclusion of financial assets abroad) on the main macro-economic indicators. By means of model the computing experiments are estimating communication between some components of shadow economy and the main macroeconomic indicators of the country (GDP and a consumer price index), the results of it are given in the end of article.
About the Authors
Valery Leonidovich Makarov
The Central economic-mathematical institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Albert Raufovich Bakhtizin
The Central economic-mathematical institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Elena Davidovna Sushko
The Central economic-mathematical institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Maria Alekseevna Burilina
The Central economic-mathematical institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
References
1. Bakhtizin A. R. Computable model “Russia: The center — Federal districts” [Vychislimaya model’ «Rossiya: Tsentr — Federal’nye okruga»]. Preprint WP/2003/151. M. : CEMI of the Russian Academy of Sciences [TsEMI RAN], 2003. (rus)
2. Bakhtizina N.V. CGE model of the competing parties of Russia [CGE model’ konkuriruyushchikh partii Rossii] // Materials of the fourth Russian symposium “Strategic planning and development of the enterprises” [Materialy chetvertogo vserossiiskogo simpoziuma «Strategicheskoe planirovanie i razvitie predpriyatii»]. M. : CEMI of the Russian Academy of Sciences [TsEMI RAN], 2003. (rus)
3. Beklaryan G. L. The analysis of efficiency of economic policy of Russia by means of the computable model of the general balance describing interaction of the cumulative consumer, cumulative producer and state [Analiz effektivnosti ekonomicheskoi politiki Rossii s pomoshch’yu vychislimoi modeli obshchego ravnovesiya, opisyvayushchei vzaimodeistvie sovokupnogo potrebitelya, sovokupnogo proizvoditelya i gosudarstva]. Preprint WP/2002/143. M. : CEMI of the Russian Academy of Sciences [TsEMI RAN], 2002. (rus)
4. Besstremyannaya G.E., Bakhtizin A.R. Computable model «Social Russia» [Vychislimaya model’ «Sotsial’naya Rossiya»]. Preprint WP/2004/173. M. : CEMI of the Russian Academy of Sciences [TsEMI RAN], 2004. (rus)
5. Makarov V. L. Computable model of the Russian economy (RUSEC) [Vychislimaya model’ rossiiskoi ekonomiki (RUSEC)] / Preprint WP/99/069. M. : CEMI of the Russian Academy of Sciences [TsEMI RAN], 1999. (rus)
6. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R. Effective way of an assessment of a state policy [Effektivnyi sposob otsenki gosudarstvennoi politiki] // Economy and management [Ekonomika i upravlenie]. 2001. N 4. (rus)
7. Makarov V. L., Bakhtizin A.R., Bakhtizina N. V. (2005). CGE model of social and economic system of Russia with the built-in neural networks [CGE model’ sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoi sistemy Rossii so vstroennymi neironnymi setyami]. M. : CEMI of the Russian Academy of Sciences [TsEMI RAN], 2005. (rus)
8. Makarov V. L., Bakhtizin A.R., Sulakshin S.S. Application of computable models in public administration [Primenenie vychislimykh modelei v gosudarstvennom upravlenii]. M.: Scientific expert [Nauchnyi ekspert], 2007. (rus)
9. Habriyeva T. Ya. Legal mechanisms of implementation of the international anti-corruption conventions in the national legislation [Pravovye mekhanizmy implementatsii mezhdunarodnykh antikorruptsionnykh konventsii v natsional’noe zakonodatel’stvo] // Legal problems of counteraction of corruption (materials of the International scientific conference «Legal Problems of Counteraction of Corruption». Moscow, on November 2, 2011) [Pravovye problemy protivodeistviya korruptsii (materialy Mezhdunarodnoi nauchnoi konferentsii «Pravovye problemy protivodeistviya korruptsii». Moskva, 2 noyabrya 2011 g.)] / executive edition of L. V. Andrichenko, O.O. Zhuravleva. M.: Institute of Legislation and Comparative Law under the Government of the Russian Federation; Publishing House «Jurisprudence» [Institut zakonodatel’stva i sravnitel’nogo pravovedeniya pri Pravitel’stve Rossiiskoi Federatsii; ID «Yurisprudentsiya»], 2012. (rus)
10. Abe, Wilson (2008): Governance, Corruption, and Trade in the Asia Pacific Region, Policy Research. Working Paper 4731.
11. Alekseev A., Tourdyeva N., Yudaeva K. (2003): Estimation of the Russia Trade Policy with the Help of the Computable General Equilibrium Model. CEFIR Academic papers.
12. Helble Matthias, Shepherd Ben and John S. Wilson (2007): Transparency and Trade Facilitation in the Asia Pacific: Estimating the Gains from Reform. Mimeo, World Bank Development Research Group.
13. Zaki Chahir (2009): Towards an Explicit Modeling of Trade Facilitation in CGE models: Evidence from Egypt, Preliminary version April, 2009.
14. Zaki Chahir (2011): Assessing the global effect of trade facilitation: evidence from the mirage model Working Paper 659, December 2011.
Review
For citations:
Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Sushko E.D., Burilina M.A. Development of Mathematical Model for a Quantitative Assessment of Consequences of Illegal Financial Operations. Administrative Consulting. 2016;(3):85-95. (In Russ.)
Views:
321
Email this article 